Steve's Toolbox

As you probably know, I am not a big fan of betting on favorites. I like to bet on price horses, and sometimes these runners are not the fastest based on time or figures (Thoro-graph, Beyer or your own numbers). How do you get a slower horse to win a race? The answer is getting the perfect trip. How do you assume a runner is going to get a perfect trip? That is the million dollar question.

The answer starts with each race having a different perfect trip based on track profile, the daily changing bias, and race shape.

I get my own track profiles by combing the charts nightly and keeping track of where the winners are coming from based on the daily charts at equibase. Let’s takeDelMar route races as an example.  Using the one mile and up distances, from 2009 to 2011, 28 out of  151  route races were won wire to wire – under 20% with many of those wins coming on days when the track favored speed. So, in general, my conclusion is that the winners at this track, going a route of ground, are going to come from of the pace. That’s just one example. You should have your own track profile for each different race run at each track that you play.

Is there a daily change on this racetrack? Yes……………Turf is based on the rail position, length, and texture of the grass. Dirt and artificial surfaces are based on track maintenance crew and mostly good old mother nature (cloud cover, rain, temperature, wind, and even tides). If you know a track has a strong bias on a particular day, don’t bet against it. Bet the horses that will be running with the bias.

Finally, there is race shape. Scanning the form to see how much speed there is in a race is decent, but I recommend using Brisnet early pace figures. Thorograph has this available as well. What I like to do is take the last five races run on the surface, and take an average number to base a runners early speed. I also take into account changes such as blinkers, trainers, and riders to determine where a runner will be early. You can really get an edge if you can become good at figuring out exactly how a race will be run.  

If you keep those factors in mind for each and every race, it will certainly help you become a better handicapper.

Good luck atDelMar, and I’ll see you in the winners circle.

Here are a few things I saw opening week where the turf meets the surf . . .

- Main track played slightly inside for the most part. Slow times and tiring racetrack was still speed favoring (very unusual combination), especially in sprints. Inside position in sprints was certainly an advantage, with the exception of the two year olds and maiden runners lacking experience.

- Route races played fair. Last year we had a big closer edge on the route races. Keep your eyes open as we didn’t see all that many two-turn races.

- The rumor that Bob Baffert would cool off didn’t materialize as he had a couple of Stake winners on the turf (Midnight Crooner in theOceansideandEden’s Moon in theSan Clemente) . That usually isn’t his strong suit. Barry Abrams is really off to a hot start at the meet. John Sadler has been very solid as well. It’s amazing how year after year he wins races with price horses sprinting atDelMar.

- Shippers did not fair very well. AFloridashipper won a grass race on Saturday. If there was another one, I can’t recall who it was. If this program is going to be successful, these horses are going to have to start winning races.MaybeDelMar should change the track back to dirt and more shippers would be able to compete.

- Keep your eyes on Corey Nakatani on the grass. He’s been super on that course for years. Gomez is really riding both surfaces well. He’s had good rides on the lead, from just off the pace and from the clouds. Martin Garcia seems to be riding with a lot of confidence as well. Maybe he will be the replacement for Joel Rosario.

- The turf course seems to have less grass than normal. Speed played fairly well the first week. The last five or six years, closers have really dominated the proceedings early in the meet. We will have to keep our eyes open on this one.

- The pick five has been just so-so as far as the payouts go. Sooner or later a stranger will win one of these short field sprints and there will be a big payoff.

- Huge favorite that was 3-5 in the last race on Sunday, “The Brain”, warmed up very poorly and looked like a sore horse. Baffert scratched the rail runner, but maybe he should have scratched The Brain as well.  Speaking of Baffert runners, where will Jaycito show up next? He wasn’t all that impressive winning an allowance on Sunday. A big bomber in the race would have beaten him for sure in Acafella if he didn’t get shut off. Keep your eyes open for him next time out.

Have a great second week, and I hope you listen to the show on Saturday.

Del Mar opens Wednesday…………….. 110 horses are entered………. split division Oceanside Stakes for the first time since I don’t know when…………..horses from Evangiline, Lonestar, Churchill, Italy and more……………new barns to follow……………..new world class riders like Yuichi Fukunaga and Julien Leparoux to watch……………One of my best friends will be clocking every day (He hasn’t clocked in ten years or so)……………… The pick four and pick five payouts are going to be off the charts……………. I haven’t been this fired up since I got a snow cone machine for my eighth birthday………………good luck to you all!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow, we are almost ready to start theDelMar meet – seven weeks with 70% of the days packed with value. Here are a few things to look for.

The last few years, the main track has really favored closers early in the season. It would seem that polytrack would be consistent and play the same throughout the meet, but that is not the case. I think there is a little wear and tear, and the track will change as the meet goes on. Deep closers will win most of the races the first few weeks. As the racing goes forward, the Jockeys will change there style and the track will not be quite as deep and will become more even.

The grass course will also favor runners of the pace early in the meet. The key to that grass course is to find a runner that will get a ground saving trip somewhere in the middle of the pack. The rail position is very important here as this becomes one of the narrowest grass courses in theUnited Stateswhen the rail is way out. Rail at 14’ will give speed a much better chance, simply because the course gets so narrow the closers have a tough time finding a spot to run. Keep your eyes open for the rail positions throughout the meet.

Find the jockeys that are riding the track well. Of course, Rafael Bejarano will be hot. Look for Corey Nakatani on the grass and Garrett Gomez on the deep closer on the main track. Chantel Sutherland also rides this track well. Her patient style fits this polytrack.  As for trainers, Van Belvoir was really good here last year and this guy can win with a price horse. Peter Miller has really become an elite trainer and had really come out firing several years in a row until last year. He could certainly bounce back here this year. Jeff Mullins has been winning at a high percentage all year. A.C.Avilapulls off a few upsets here every year, and it is worth keeping your eyes on him. In the races that he wins, his runners are usually bet early.

There is a flag pole right near the finish line. Use it to check the wind before the races start. Nine times out of ten, it’s not a factor. But three or four times a meet, the wind is coming in strongly off the ocean and front runners will be off the board on those days. If we get aSanta Ana, hot winds will be coming from the east and the speed will be very tough to catch.

Last year, the fifty cent pick five offered great value the first four weeks. Many of the payouts were over $5000 and seemed to pay a thousand or two more than one would expect. If you have a nice bankroll to start the meet, I would suggest you take a serious look at this wager every single day.

Good luck, and we’ll see you in the Winner’s Circle!

A major problem I see with almost every single player(including myself): We are playing each day with a different bankroll. This may actually be you. One day you are short on money and playing $10 a race. The next day, a bonus came in, you made a score on a race, stocks went way up (ok – that doesn’t really happen anymore) and it’s $100 or even $1000 a race.

Since I played golf every day for the first fifteen years of my life, it’s easy for me to relate things in golf terms. Playing with an inconsistent amount for your bankroll is like playing one day with fourteen clubs and the next day with only six. Can you imagine Tiger or Phil playing a round with half their clubs? No 60 degree wedge for the flop shot, no duce for the stinger – you get the point. So in horseracing terms, the bankroll you play with will dictate the bets you are able to make. For example, today a player may have three hundred dollars so he’s playing pick threes and trifectas. The next day, that same player may have $2000 and it’s  pick six, superfecta and a wager in every race. A day later, the same guy has $50 and he’s looking to put it all on the nose of one best bet. To have your best chance to win,all types of wagers need to be available each day.Feeling comfortable about each wager is a must when it comes to winning. Whenever we “need” to cash, it’s almost a certainty that we will be heading to the parking lot with our pockets empty.

Here is what I suggest you start doing . . . Start each day with the exact same amount in your bankroll. Have several ways of wagering and never vary from those ways. Obviously, you are all going to have very different bankrolls. Start with what is comfortable for you. For example, let’s start with a $200 bankroll. I would never bet more than $20 (10%) on any one race. (Remember, to win you must be in your comfort zone. If you bet outside your comfort zone, the Gambling Gods come into play and you’re almost sure to lose.) Scan the races the night before, and try to find the six or seven races that you might think have some value. Plan on making four or five $20 wagers the next day. ( I always figure on one or two being a pass due to scratches, unexpected weather, a big track bias or odds changes.) That would mean $100 total wagered.

It is very important to leave the track or turn off the computer with money left in your bankroll. The next day we start the same way – if we lost $100, we put $100 back in to play. If we win $200 we take that out of play and start the day with our original $200. The point is to be consistent and stay in your comfort zone. Good luck and I’ll be back soon with another hammer, saw or screwdriver for my toolbox.

I just finished watching a show on the Golf Channel that had Top 10 hardest US Open golf courses. I love watching that show, and it made me want to do a Top 10 list of my own. I was going to do my top 10 favorite all time races, but almost every one of them resulted in me making a big score! So instead, how about the Top 10 Southern California riders for the past thirty years?

Here we go . . .

10. It’s a tie between current hot shot leading riders Joel Rosario and Rafael Bejarano – Both guys certainly have the talent, and only time will tell if they can move up the ladder into the top five. I would like to see both of these guys on Triple Crown contenders and winning more Breeders Cup races.

9. Corey Nakatani – This guy has as much talent as anyone who has ever ridden a horse. He is super competitive and has the most aerodynamic way of riding. Hopefully, this guy can finish his career with a solid run and maybe move up the ladder. I would love to see Nakatani get a Kentucky Derby win to go with all his Breeders Cup success.

8. Patrick Valenzuela – We all know what could have been. This guy is a lot smarter than most people give him credit for. He won Breeders Cup races and Triple Crown races. He was the best speed rider and could get a horse out the first one hundred yards better than anyone. In the middle part of his career, he rode the grass pretty well. He had it all…………….But oh those Demons.

7. Garrett Gomez – With all this guy has overcome in his life, it’s ironic he ends up one in front of P. Val. Here is another guy I would love to see win the Kentucky Derby. He has as much patience on a horse as one could have. It still impresses me to see how much he improves a horse the first time he gets a leg up. I’m a big fan of this guy and hope he has a bright future in racing.

6. Bill Shoemaker – Ok, so I’m putting this guy low on my list. I’m certain some of you will have him at number one, but here’s the deal . . . I caught him at the tail end of his career and I never felt good if he was on a horse I liked unless it was a grade one. He has all the records, Blah Blah Blah . . . He’s still only #6.  Sorry Shoe.

5. Kent Desourmeaux – He rode the best I’ve ever seen anyone ride for the first two years he was inSouthern California. He won almost thirty percent of his races atDelMar against the strongest riding colony we ever had here. He has had many personal obstacles, and I sure would like to see him overcome them. He understands pace and saving ground better than anyone. Good luck on your comeback,Kent!

4. Gary Stevens – He was the best grass rider over the last 30 years. (Sorry Fernando Toro and Kent Desourmeaux.) Of course, this guy won all the Triple Crown races and many Breeders Cup races as well. He had a great feel for how to milk a horse to the wire when they were tired. He was great on the lead or from dead last. He never seemed to be on a horse that had a bad trip. He could have easily been higher on this list as well.

3. Eddie D. – He was known for being the guy who came from last to first. He had a method to his madness and would almost always save every inch of ground. He would never start his move to soon because he knew he wanted to swing out of the turn from the rail. He was a great front running rider as well. I can remember Trevor giving him the “Deep Water” call several times and he came back to win. He was great in all the big races and on any style horse.

2. Chris McCarron – He was an artist. First of all, he loved riding the big race. He was “super cool” when it came to the money races. What I never understood about Chris was how he was able to get a speed horse clear in a race with five other speed horses with fractions two seconds slower than one would have expected!! That was a unique quality. Other than maybe Jerry Bailey, there has never been a rider that was as smart as Chris. He seemingly knew what everyone else was going to do and if he was wrong about it, he made the necessary adjustments to give his horse the best possible chance to win.

1. Laffit Pincay, Jr. – He gets the nod as the best ever Southern California rider for the past thirty years due to his incredible record, his discipline, his work ethic and his incredible will to be the best. I have never seen a rider that was as tough to go by in the lane as he was. If he was on the lead at the sixteenth pole, chances were it was all over. If he was a length behind you at the sixteenth pole, chances were it was all over. He was awesome in the big races with Triple Crown and Breeders Cup winners – too many winners to list in this blog. He was and still is as good a person as he was a rider.

Thanks for all the memories Laffit,  Chris, Eddie D.,Gary,Kent, Shoe, Go-Go, P. Val, C. Nak., Joel and Rafael!

Honorable mentions:

Fernando Toro – a great grass rider and had the best nick-name (The Lawnmower).

Martin Pedroza – best ever Bullring rider.

George Velasquez – He  just didn’t ride here long enough to get consideration.

Sandy Hawley – The slasher could whip a horse fifty times in the stretch.

Kenny Black – What could have been?

Mike Smith – undeniable great record but has too many poor rides to make the Top 10.

Twelve years ago, I started to look at the superfecta pool as a serious way to improve my income. There was something to the math in the superfecta that really appealed to me. In races with ten or more horses, I would ask myself “How can people hit a superfecta?” I would bet $30, $50 and even $100 and have all the runners but usually not in the correct order. I was successful in the trifecta, but I just wasn’t able to get all the runners in the correct order on a regular basis for a superfecta.

One day I realized the math that was involved in a superfecta vs a trifecta and I thought, “What if I started betting the superfecta the same way I bet the trifecta?. What would it cost me?” My success in the trifecta came with keying a horse first and second (sometimes even third) with at least five other runners. I would play (and still do) 1x5x5 first and second for $40. Sometimes I would play 1x2xall and 1xallx2 and then put the key horse in second as well.($32.00 each copy). Basically, if I was going to have the same coverage, I needed to wager nine or ten times the amount I was wagering on trifectas.(In a 10 horse field mathematical possibilities for trifectas are 10x9x8=720. The same combinations for a superfecta are 10x9x8x7=5040). I came up with four or five different ways to play the super, almost always having a key horse and feeling the the favorite was a beatable horse.

My first way to play was 1x6x6x6 and key one horse first, second and third (three tickets, $120.00 each, for a total of $360.00). I figured I needed a bankroll just for supers so I decided to start with $3600.00. That would give me ten plays at an average of $360.00 for each one.

I’ll never forget the first one. It was a grass race at Santa Anita and the field had twelve runners. I keyed a 10-1 shot first, second, and third, with 6 other runners filling out the other spots. The ticket looked like this-   1 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7. Second ticket 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7. third ticket 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,6,7. All three tickets cost a total of $360.00 ($120.00 each). The race went off and my key horse ran great; however, she lost the head bob at the wire and had to settle for second. A 5-1 shot won the race, followed by my top horse at 10-1, followed by a 13-1 and then the 7-2 second favorite. I had all the runners!! The ticket came back $2700.00 – almost covering my original bankroll in the first bet!!!

As you know, things don’t always go that way. But this thing just took off, and I was making a nice profit almost every month. When The Kentucky Derby came up that year and I heard that there was a superfecta, I had to be in. It was 2001 and the favorite was Point Given. I landed on a runner named Thunder Blitz to be the key. Because there were seventeen entries, I decided to put a little extra money into it, so I keyed Thunder first, second, third and fourth. I used five horses in the top two spots and added three down on the bottom. The tickets looked like this 1x5x8x8, 5x1x8x8, 5x8x1x8 and 5x8x8x1. Each ticket cost a total of $210.00 and since I was keying Thunder Blitz in four spots, the total cost of the ticket was $840.00.

That is a large investment, even for someone who is doing this for a living, but I was confident that my key horse would run and that the pace horses would dual and could be tossed. The race went just as planned, and one by one the horses up near the lead caved in. Monarchos went by and looked like a winner. Invisible Ink, a 55-1 shot, was running his heart out and was in a photo with 7-1 Congaree. But where is my key horse? He showed up just in the nick of time. He passed a tired Point Given and finished fourth. The ticket came 16-13-8-4. I thought I had it, but I had to pull out my tickets to make sure. I did have it!!!!!!!!!   The race came 10-1, 55-1, 7-1 and 25-1. It was a 17 horse field. It took a long time to put up the payouts because there was a lengthy photo for second and an inquiry as well. I thought it would easily pay over $100,000. When the smoke settled, the ticket came back $62,986.

Although I was happy with the big hit, I really felt it was a short payout. In fact, over the next five years, the payout was larger and had lower price runners finishing in the first four spots. (By the way, that was the same year they caught the guys betting the pick six in the fifth leg, and I’ve always felt that the same guys must have somehow skimmed myDerbysuper.) Nevertheless, that was a great score.

A year or so later, the 10 cent super was instated and people were able to wager 10 times less and really cover themselves. Much of the value in the super was gone. Supers that I would get $2500 for before were coming back about half of that and so I had to change my ways.

However, I felt a little different about this year’sDerby. First off all, theDerbydoes not allow 10 cent supers. Second of all, I felt with sprinter Trinniberg in the race, that this year’s super could again be hit with the same strategy I used eleven years ago.  So I decided to go back to the glory days and put together another big super.

I liked two runners to be the key. One was Dullahan, who I felt was the best closer in the race. The other was Creative Cause, who, despite all the bad talk about his training inKentucky, had never run a bad race. So I keyed two different horses to run first, second and third. Each ticket cost $210.00 for a total of $1260.00. Of course, when I watched the first six or seven races and I saw speed was doing so well, I played another ticket keying Take Charge Indy to be first, second, and third. That ticket cost another $360.00. All told, I had $1620.00 invested in the superfecta.

When they sprung the gates, it was instant trouble. Trinniberg didn’t go with Bodemeister!!!!!!! The only ticket that I used Bodemeister on at all was with Take Charge Indy. So, when I saw Take Charge Indy caving in the stretch, I knew I needed for “Bode” to run fifth, and at that point he looked like the winner. I knew I was done.  

As it turned out, even on the ticket where Dullahan ran third, I didn’t have I’ll Have Another or Bodemeister at all. With that much invested, it was as far from actually hitting it as could be.    

All in all, it was an enjoyable bet to make and if I have a strong opinion next year, I will do it again.

Enjoy the next few weeks as it’s a special time for racing.  

(Just to give you an idea, here is a copy of two of my nine losing tickets from theDerby.)

“He’s training poorly.” (From someone who didn’t see the workout and is just looking at the racing form.)

“He loves the seaside air.” (Really? Maybe he just likes polytrack or a tight turning grass course likeDelMar.)

“The trainer is 0 for 5 - if only he had a good trainer.” (The trainer was high percentage trainer, Ron Ellis, who had started the meet slowly. Of course, that horse won and paid $18.00)

“They wouldn’t send that horse back there unless they knew they were going to win.” (Who’s “they” anyway?)

“He couldn’t get in that last jog because of rain. That’s going to really hurt.” (Seriously?)

“The handicapper on the Jason Levine Show – what’s that guys name???? – likes my horse and he can’t possibly pick a winner, so I’m done.” (True story.)

 “This horse does not like to run at night.” (How many times has he run poorly at night?)

“He should really improve with the figure eight nose bandage.” (Wow!!! What the heck is a figure eight nose bandage anyway?)

“Second time juice should make this filly tough.” (Yep, she was only beaten twenty lengths last time and will improve at least twenty today – no problem!) (The horse did improve . . . it was only beaten by 10 this time.)

“Both of his grass wins drew the far outside so this horse likes to run wide.” (The horse had managed to get over to the rail in both instances and save ground, and then come outside on the turn.)

‘The jockey told me the horse has really trained well the last couple of workouts.” (That horse had never run a contending race with the horses he was facing that day and, low and behold, he didn’t contend again.)

These are all things I have heard from handicappers in the past. Some may have been accurate, but most of them were not.

Here is what I do know……………. I have lost thousands of dollars on information that is just plain “steam”. Many times, these were tips right from the connections themselves (owners and trainers) or things I heard from other handicappers trying to convince me that they had the winner.

When I have had success betting on the races, it’s because I put my head down and concentrated on the facts and figured out how to bet on them. The facts to bet on include pace, sheet numbers, race-replays, bias, breeding, trainer or equipment changes, or maybe even a crazy horse that was gelded. “Steam”, as I call it (or inside information), is just plain inaccurate 90% of the time. Concentrate on the facts and your betting, and let everyone else worry about the rest.

Before we get started with the addition of sprinter, Trinniberg, to the likely starters of the Kentucky Derby, I think the likelihood of a very deep closer winning the Derby has gone way up – enough, in fact, for Dullahan to currently be one of my top three horses in the Run for the Roses. If the fast pace materializes in this race , it is likely that this year’s winner could come from as far back as 15th or even 20th in the pack. I will definitely be double keying this race (see blog titled Double Key).

Thursday kicks off the Hollywood Spring/Summer meeting. Here are some things to look for:

First and foremost, this is a synthetic all-weather track. It’s not like dirt (Santa Anita and Fairplex), and it’s not Polytrack (Del Mar); it is somewhere between the two. Closers clearly have a better shot to win here than they did at Santa Anita. All distances on the main track, aside from the two year old races at 4.5 to 5.5 which are dominated by speed, tend to play that way. Approximately 10% more races will be won by horses more than three lengths of the pace at this track vs. the track at Santa Anita.

One unique sprint distance that runs at this oval is at seven and a half furlongs. Surprisingly, this one has been a real fair distance. These races used to be dominated by closers; however, that has certainly changed. Speed horses do really well at this taxing distance. Route runners with speed can be especially effective here on the cutback.

One small thing to be aware of is that the main track can change here and with a few days off. It seems like we had several Thursdays that were closer bias racetracks. However, as the week goes on, the track seems to even out and becomes more fair. As far as the best path goes in sprints, the outside generally has a slight advantage (as expected). Routes are really pretty fair here with only a slight edge to the inside path around the first turn.

Horses that have been working at Hollywood Park will have a decent advantage over the horses working at Santa Anita. There will be some form reversals simply due to the switch in surfaces. This is clearly a case where horses for courses will come into play.

The grass course plays pretty similar to Santa Anita. Usually, early in the meet, the off pace runners will have a slight edge. As the course gets worn out, speed horses will have the edge. The grass sprints are unique. At six furlongs, there is a slight left hand turn fairly early and of course the regular turn coming for home. As always, rail position can be vital. (Remember – the further out the rail is, the harder it is for horses to find room on the inside.) A general rule I use: rails at 0’ – cover trip inside; rails way out (say 30’) – best trip is on the lead or more outside in the clear. Keep an eye out on the grass course as it was completely brown last fall. Hopefully, they have that under control for this meet.

Here are a few riders to watch other than the obvious. David Flores rode this track really well last year, and he brought in several nice price horses. He may not get many mounts, but he is worth watching. Joe Talamo may get off to a great start because he’s been hot, and the big boys will be out of town riding in the Triple Crown races. As for a wait and see approach, P. Val returns for comeback number???????? He may struggle to start, and he may be great. I heard he was on a new diet and is in great shape; however, he may be rusty.

Trainers sure play a big role in the outcome at Hollywood Park (as they do everywhere). Peter Miller was quiet at the end of the Santa Anita meet. I expect him to come out rolling, especially with the two year old races. Marty Jones will most likely generate a flat bet profit for the meeting, and he may be the only trainer you can bet blind every starter and make a profit. Michael Pender and Art Sherman are stabled here and both guys can train and win here with price horses. Walter Solis always does well here with the two year olds. It will be easier to go against Bob Baffert’s runners as he will be focusing on the Triple Crown races and getting ready for Del Mar. He won’t win at such a high percentage here as he did at Santa Anita.

Finally, there is night racing. Crazy things can happen with the Friday night racing cards. I like to look for a single and maybe a two or three and buy the rest in the pick four. It’s amazing how many Friday night carry-overs we had the last few years. Don’t be surprised to wake up Saturday Morning with a carryover.

Last Saturday was the final big prep day for theDerby. There was a horse in the Blue Grass that I particularly liked named Dullahan. I had many reasons to think this guy could win the Blue Grass, most of all because he had won a grade one race over the Keeneland polytrack surface as a two year old and looked very impressive doing it.

This guy was bet almost in half at post time so I played him in the exotics with the other runner I liked, Holy Candy. As I watched the race, I had a hard time figuring out which horse was which. After the horses crossed the wire I went back to my seat and told my friend Ed, “Boy, Dulahan didn’t run a step.” He promptly said to me, “That horse won the race, you dumb****.” Someday, maybe Keeneland will come out of the dark ages and color the saddle towels so you can actually tell where each horse is in a race. As it turned out, I had lost him mid-race and started watching a different horse (easy to do when they all look the same), but that is a topic we can discuss on another day.

The subject is simple – what do we do with Dullahan in the Kentucky Derby?  I will try to offer an unbiased but helpful opinion of how this guy will run the first Saturday in May.

Here are the plusses for this guy: With front runners such as Bodemeister, Take Charge Indy and Hanson as well as pressers (Gemologist, Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Secret Circle, Went the Day Well, Hero of Order and maybe even Union Rags), the race may set up  for a runner to come from far back and win the race. Dullahan certainly has as good a stretch punch as any runner in the race. His trainer, Dale Romans, is solid and had a Triple Crown race winner last year in Shackleford.Jockey,KentDesourmeaux, has won the Kentucky Derby three times with Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasis and Big Brown. The pedigree is certainly a plus, being out of a Smart Strike mare and sired by Even the Score. (He is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird). He has a solid foundation as a two year old with six starts, was given the time to blossom, and is still a relatively fresh horse.

In addition, HRTV had trainer Dale Romans on and he sounded very confident. (Most trainers do.) One thing he said that I did take note of was how well he thought Dullahan ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (obviously a key race to find this year’sDerbywinner). “The track was really speed-favoring that day, and he had quite a troubled trip.” When I heard that, my first thought was that maybe I had found myDerbyhorse.

My second thought was……………speed bias track on Breeders Cup day. Hmmmmmmm. What about Drosselmeyer, who came from the weeds to win the Breeders Cup Classic? How about Caleb’s Posse who was way back early in the mile?  Amazombie was six lengths behind at the quarter and three others won from well behind that day. Churchill was not a speed bias track on Breeders Cup Day for sure.

So with that in mind, I still went to my computer to watch the Breeders Cup Juvenile again. Dullahan had only minor trouble at the break and minimal traffic throughout the race. He ran ok at best, but those are two year olds who can get better, right? Absolutely; however several things bother me about Dullahan for the Kentucky Derby : First, he has three races over the Churchill Downs surface and none of them have been any good. In fact, he was soundly beaten in maiden races byDerbyhopefuls, Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat. He has never shown any ability to run on any dirt track in an afternoon race anywhere in the country. He truly looks like a polytrack/grass specialist. Second, this horse pulls up immediately after he crosses the wire as if he is being protected for some reason. MaybeKentis just beingKent, trying to save this guy or maybe the horse isn’t all that sound.

Finally, there will be comparisons to last year’sDerbywinner, Animal Kingdom, and 2009 winner, Mine That Bird. Rightfully so; however, Animal Kingdom came off synthetic and grass races and won the Run for the Roses. Two big differences are that Animal Kingdom didn’t have three negative races run on the dirt, and the field seemed a lot less talented than this bunch of titans. Then there is Mine That Bird. This runner not only caught a soft group but he got an off track and one of the greatest rides of all at Churchill Downs by  great rider, Calvin Borel. In addition, if my memory is correct, Mine That Bird never ran another big race the rest of his career.

What to do??? Unless we see a muddy or sloppy track, I am going to use Dullahan in my exotics but not as the key. His style is one that really makes me want to use him. There will be a strong pace in this race, and this year’sDerbycould easily be won by a deep closer. However, Dullahan’s dirt races show me nothing and he just may be a synthetic and grass specialist. So, in the end, I’ll keep looking for this years’ winner and, one way or another, keep a close watch on the rest of the talented Dullahan’s career.