Steve's Toolbox

I’ve probably purchased over six thousand Racing Forms in my life. DRF has done very well with me as a customer (so has Seven Eleven). But once a week or so, I smile and say thank you very much DRF for having Stable Mail that has paid me back so graciously. Stable Mail is to the Horse Player what exercise is to our health. It’s just something you have to do to be better.

If you don’t know what I am talking about, DRF offers a service that will e-mail you when any horse inNorth Americais running. It’s free, easy to use, fun and can be very profitable. As anything in life, you have to be persistent with it. So, what I do is keep a notebook with me and every time I see something in a runner that was not so obvious, I mark it down in my notes and put that horse in my Stable Mail. Here are a few things that I look for:  troubled trips, ran against a big speed bias, closed stoutly up the rail when the outside was good, broke straight sideways from the far outside. You name it, I’ve marked it. Even when I’m watching videos on a particular runner, another runner may catch my eye. I may mark that one down to take a closer look at and add it to my Stable Mail.

Here is an example of one that ran on the Presidents Day Monday card:

Wild Mia shipped in from back east in June of last year and ran a huge race to beat the horse I liked on the wire. She went very wide, and really ran an impressive race. The next time out, she ran really wide again and was beaten soundly by a loose on the lead and a very sharp runner, Celtic Princess. I thought that race was much better than it looked so I added Wild Mia to my Stable Mail. 

Three weeks later, when she showed up at DelMar and drew the rail at a mile and a sixteenth, I was very excited. In the race, she got a 49 half mile and was forced to go wide but still came running for a nice second. I lost a decent amount on her that day but lost none of my confidence that she could run.

She didn’t show up again until January in a race coming down the hill against Mizdirection andUnzipMe. Those two can really run. In fact, I had Mizdirection on my Stable Mail as well. Unzip Me was the big favorite, and I thought maybe she could be beaten first off the layoff. One thing was for sure – I was going to get a price on Wild Mia. She actually went off at 28-1. I played her to win/place and saved in exacta boxes with the two favorites. I also played a three horse tri-box. When she came rolling past all but Mizdirection, I made a big score. Fortunately, Unzip Me held on for a dead heat in the show and I cashed on a nice trifecta box as well the exacta and place bets.

Next out was when trainer Jerry Fanning brought her back on January 21 with less than three weeks rest after the big effort down the hill. At first, I thought the race would be taken off the grass because we had a ton of rain the night before. Then, when I saw the race was still going on the grass, I was worried that she might not be able to handle the wet turf (which was listed as firm) and she was favored anyway. So, when I watched her run wide every step of the way and was soundly defeated, I smiled and thought, “Next time.”

That next race would be this past Monday against a large field including the Drysdale runner that just beat Wild Mia a month before. It all looked right again – plenty of speed to chase, good draw, firm turf and best of all, she went off at 10-1 against a group that I knew she could beat. Unfortunately, she forked to the inside and just could not get to the top two and was beaten about a half length. I did give some of my money back, but the score in January made that particular Stable Mail really worth my while.

So that being said, do yourself a favor – sign up for DRF Stable Mail, and then e-mail Jason and me about the big score you made! Have a great week, good luck to all – especially those of you playing in the World Series in Las Vegas – and I’ll be back next week with another chisel from my tool box.

It happened to Doyle Lonnegan, who is a character played by one of my all time favorite actors, Robert Shaw. Everything was right; after all it was a fixed race. “I’ll put it all on Lucky Dan to Win – half a million dollars.” (I also loved the line “not only are you a cheat, but a gutless cheat as well.”)

Kid Twist (the guy that came over to Lonnegan during the infamous race) exclaimed, “Win? I said Place. Place it on Lucky Dan! That horse is going to run second!!!!

If you don’t know what I’m talking about, please stop reading and go rent a movie called “The Sting.” When I was a kid, it was at the theater for so long, that I thought it was the only movie that played there!

O.K. let’s get to the point, shall we. 

On Thursday, February 16, Race 6 at Santa Anita, I really liked a horse named Late Night Sky. I felt this runner needed a little time off and thought this one would get a clear and easy lead and win the race. Good trainer, nice rider change, good work pattern and the rail draw were among the other plusses. He was my best bet of the day. I felt there were several contenders to box with this one in the exacta.  However, when I got to Vibrato Jazz, who eventually won the race, I thought he was just another runner that had a chance. (I had watched his last two races in detail and thought he was just ok.) Considering the Sadler factor and the rider change toRosario, “Jazz” was probably a must use. However, I used four horses in the exacta and felt that five would be too many. Another reason not to box the exacta with “Jazz” was that I would be exposing 10 units, 5 different exacta boxes, and the probable pay out I saw was only $32.00. It looked like a lousy proposition.

Thus, the reason for this re-visit to the old place bet. The place take-out is still at 15.43%. If I had bet “Night” to win and place, would I get a better return on my investment? I calculated the place payout and came up with $6.00 to $7.00 range. I still decided to go with the four exacta boxes and leave out the place bet and the fifth box.

That actually made the difference in me winning and losing on the day. Late Night Sky did everything right, but Vibrato Jazz  was just better and ran him down in the lane. Late Night Sky finished second returning $6.20 to place. I ripped up all my wagers, resulting in a losing day.

Being a player that has used the exacta as my saver wager for over twenty years, it’s rough to think about betting a place wager. My ego has a rough time using the word PLACE. However, the reason to rethink the wager is that the takeout increase in two horse exotics is really making a difference. A 2% increase (started a year ago) is really a 10% increase in the takeout.  The takeout increase rising from 20% to 22% makes the exacta a wager to reconsider. The right alternative is the place bet.

This may sound crazy, but I can feel the difference in the exacta payouts. Almost every time, it seems to pay from $5 to $40 less than what I think it will pay. Even when I look at the probable payouts before the race, it still seems to pay even less than that. 

The saver place bet would have been perfect this time. Because my exactas were not savers, they were a losing proposition. In the long run, it is not as “glamorous” to play the place bets. Can you imagine Jason coming on the air and saying, “Steve really liked that one! He ran great and paid $6.20 to place.” That just does not sound right. However, with the increase in takeout, next time I’ll consider making a place bet and you should too.

In the long hall, it may mean a few thousand bucks a year, and that is worth reconsidering.

Thanks for logging on, and I’ll be back next week with another Toolbox tip.