“He’s training poorly.” (From someone who didn’t see the workout and is just looking at the racing form.)
“He loves the seaside air.” (Really? Maybe he just likes polytrack or a tight turning grass course likeDelMar.)
“The trainer is 0 for 5 - if only he had a good trainer.” (The trainer was high percentage trainer, Ron Ellis, who had started the meet slowly. Of course, that horse won and paid $18.00)
“They wouldn’t send that horse back there unless they knew they were going to win.” (Who’s “they” anyway?)
“He couldn’t get in that last jog because of rain. That’s going to really hurt.” (Seriously?)
“The handicapper on the Jason Levine Show – what’s that guys name???? – likes my horse and he can’t possibly pick a winner, so I’m done.” (True story.)
“This horse does not like to run at night.” (How many times has he run poorly at night?)
“He should really improve with the figure eight nose bandage.” (Wow!!! What the heck is a figure eight nose bandage anyway?)
“Second time juice should make this filly tough.” (Yep, she was only beaten twenty lengths last time and will improve at least twenty today – no problem!) (The horse did improve . . . it was only beaten by 10 this time.)
“Both of his grass wins drew the far outside so this horse likes to run wide.” (The horse had managed to get over to the rail in both instances and save ground, and then come outside on the turn.)
‘The jockey told me the horse has really trained well the last couple of workouts.” (That horse had never run a contending race with the horses he was facing that day and, low and behold, he didn’t contend again.)
These are all things I have heard from handicappers in the past. Some may have been accurate, but most of them were not.
Here is what I do know……………. I have lost thousands of dollars on information that is just plain “steam”. Many times, these were tips right from the connections themselves (owners and trainers) or things I heard from other handicappers trying to convince me that they had the winner.
When I have had success betting on the races, it’s because I put my head down and concentrated on the facts and figured out how to bet on them. The facts to bet on include pace, sheet numbers, race-replays, bias, breeding, trainer or equipment changes, or maybe even a crazy horse that was gelded. “Steam”, as I call it (or inside information), is just plain inaccurate 90% of the time. Concentrate on the facts and your betting, and let everyone else worry about the rest.